We will increase the practicability of politic, support the local administration essentially and we will strengthen the efficiency of acting. Therefore you will have a comprehensive knowledge of running proceedings and regulation. Our performance is based upon the theory of complex systems. We won't make decisions, we will show the opportunities and the resulting consequences.
Population projection in small communities is more difficult then nations, because local administration and actors always influence the development strongly. The result is a couple of different initial positions and dynamics. But we need information to develop our local authorities successfully. How do we solve the problem?
At first we examine and describe the system, including all significant system elements and their causal linkage. Then the system structure is translated into a computer simulation model which allows complex and realistic computer simulation. A complete description of the initial system state i.e. the initial conditions necessary for starting the calculation. Scenarios for the temporal development of external influences over the time period considered. The scenario data will consist of assumptions concerning plausible and likely development conditions. Several scenarios characterised by different guiding aspects (basic ideas, central themes) should cover the total spectrum of real possible exogenous influences in order to access the resulting consequences and developments.
We simulate the development of the population and houses in different residential quarters in small time steps (less than a year) up to 2035. The validity of the simulation model are proved by the reconstruction of the past only by changing the external influences.
We divided the community into areas with similar environment and hence similar demographic pattern. This includes reason and behaviour by different kind of migrate or immigrate, which also influence the fertility and mortality. So you can discover the opportunities and resulting consequences including the topics: housing, household, nursery school, kindergarten, school system, playground, sports, cemetery and so on.
Since 1996 we have examined more then 70 communities from 2.000 to 80.000 inhabitants in northern Germany. We also examine the resulting consequences and improve the development of great new housing areas.
Does the simulation works?
An example: Hessisch Oldendorf
The community decide to carry out the less expansive A-Scenario. The simulation was made in 2004. After 12 years there are only view discrepancy. The city permitted a bigger senior citizens home and they do over years nothing against the emigration of younger people. This was a political decision and not a simulation imperfection.
Time flies ... The simulation model shows not only the development of population and houses. It give you the opportunity to manage the evolution of a city. But only few communities start this next step into a more democratic and sustainable future. In the neighbourhood of the city Bremen is the much smaller town Achim located. The community of Achim has 30.000 inhabitants. The growth of the infrastructure shall be harmonised with the growth of new housing areas. At first we simulate what happens wen the plan of a new housing area will come reality as planned, especially the resulting in case of the expensive kindergartens and schools. Next we chance the art, time and scale to optimise the proceeding. If an investor insist on making his plan, we calculate the costs and he will pay and do so.
But our proceeding is still unusual and unique. The most administration in Germany concludes from planned flats (apartments) direct to children. It means, they believe that new housing bear not growing people. They also believe in population projections without any democratic opportunities. Sapere aude!
PDF description: Peter H. Kramer - Population Analysis and Projections for Small Communities by Application of System Dynamics
Peter H. Kramer
urban planning engineer and urban system analyst
D-31707 Bad Eilsen (Germany) - Hermann-Loens-Streat 6
Phone: +49 (0) 57 22 / 95 48 470
Email: i n f o [...] k r a m e r g u t a c h t e n . d e