Population Analysis and Projections for Small Communities by Application of System Dynamics

We will increase the practicability of politic, support the local administration essentially and we will strengthen the efficiency of acting. Therefore you will have a comprehensive knowledge of running proceedings and regulation. Our performance is based upon the theory of complex systems. We won't make decisions, we will show the opportunities and the resulting consequences.

Population projection in small communities is more difficult then nations, because local administration and actors always influence the development strongly. The result is a couple of different initial positions and dynamics. But we need information to develop our local authorities successfully. How do we solve the problem?

At first we examine and describe the system, including all significant system elements and their causal linkage. Then the system structure is translated into a computer simulation model which allows complex and realistic computer simulation. A complete description of the initial system state i.e. the initial conditions necessary for starting the calculation. Scenarios for the temporal development of external influences over the time period considered. The scenario data will consist of assumptions concerning plausible and likely development conditions. Several scenarios characterised by different guiding aspects (basic ideas, central themes) should cover the total spectrum of real possible exogenous influences in order to access the resulting consequences and developments.

We simulate the development of the population and houses in different residential quarters in small time steps (less than a year) up to 2030. The validity of the simulation model are proved by the reconstruction of the past only by changing the external influences.

We divided the community into areas with similar environment and hence similar demographic pattern. This includes reason and behaviour by different kind of migrate or immigrate, which also influence the fertility and mortality. So you can discover the opportunities and resulting consequences including the topics: housing, household, nursery school, kindergartden, school system, playground, sports, cemetery and so on.

Since 1996 we have examined more then 70 communities from 2.000 to 80.000 inhabitants in northern Germany. We also examine the resulting consequences and improve the development of great new housing areas.

Peter H. Kramer
System Dynamics in Urban Planning


An Example:

Kiel Suchsdorf is a separated district of the harbour city Kiel with 7.500 people in 2001. The scenario A shows the development without any measure by the local administration. In the scenario B we have simulate the realisation of a new great housing area.



Peter .H. Kramer

Peter H. Kramer
System Dynamics in Urban Planning
D-31707 Bad Eilsen (Germany) - Hermann-Loens-Streat 6
fon: +49 (0) 57 22 / 95 48 470
homepage: www.kramergutachten.de
mail: i n f o [...] k r a m e r g u t a c h t e n . d e


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population projection